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Noise vs. Signal – Issue 01

THE READ

Have you nodded along in meetings about SEO, content, and AI search while quietly wondering what half of it actually means? This is for you.

Here’s what happened in May, explained in plain language. Something routine got mistaken for a crisis. Something genuinely new arrived. And the loudest “you must do this” advice just got knocked down by Google itself. I sort it all into signal and noise, and I explain every bit of jargon along the way, so nobody’s left guessing.

01

Noise Watch

SKIP IT

Old advice in shiny new packaging. You can safely ignore it.

You’re not behind: Google just said most “AI search secrets” aren’t real.

For about 18 months there’s been a steady drumbeat of advice, saying AI search is a brand-new game that needs brand-new tricks: add a special file called llms.txt, chop your content into little “chunks,” rewrite your pages “for the AI.” A whole cottage industry of “GEO” and “AEO” consultants came up selling these as urgent must-dos.

This month Google quietly published an official guide that says, plainly, you don’t need any of it.

The headline of Google’s own page is worth reading slowly: “Optimizing for generative AI search is optimizing for the search experience, and thus still SEO.” The same guide names “GEO” and “AEO” as new labels for old work, not separate disciplines that require new tactics. The special files and markup the consultants are selling? Google doesn’t use any of them.

The reason is simple once you see it: the AI answers are built on top of standard Google search. AI Overviews and AI Mode reach into the same index, weigh the same signals, and surface the same kinds of pages your existing SEO work was already pushing toward.

So being good at the basics you already invest in is exactly what gets you mentioned by the AI tools. Useful, original, brand-anchored content on a site that’s easy to crawl. That is the whole list.

my read

If anyone (an agency, a tool, a vendor) is pitching you llms.txt or “AI rewrites” as an urgent must-do, you can now say no using Google’s own words. It was sold as new. It was never required. What actually works is the unglamorous thing: content only your business could have written, on a site that’s easy to use.

In Plain Terms

GEO

Short for generative engine optimization, a fancy name for “getting your content quoted by AI answer tools.” In practice it’s mostly the same work as good SEO.

llms.txt

A proposed little text file you’d add to your website to tell AI tools how to use your content. It sounds official. No major AI company actually uses it.

AI Overview

The AI-written summary that now appears at the very top of many Google results pages, above the usual links.

Sources: Google’s official Search Central guide on generative-AI features (the source that counts) · independent analyses showing AI crawlers basically never request the llms.txt file · industry write-ups on the “everyone’s selling it so it must matter” loop. Echoed by content strategist Andy Crestodina, who found most AI-search checklists are nearly identical and miss the basics.

02

What Actually Changed

SIGNAL

A real change, but nothing for you to do this week.

Search “changed twice” in one week. Here’s why you shouldn’t react to either.

Google made two big moves a couple of days apart, and from your analytics dashboard they look identical.

First, at I/O 2026 on May 19, Google redesigned its search box to be smarter at understanding what you actually mean. It now expands as you type, accepts images and files alongside text, and feeds directly into AI Mode. Google also confirmed AI Mode has crossed a billion users a month, running on its newer Gemini 3.5 Flash model.

Two days later, Google began a routine “core update,” a periodic refinement of how it decides which pages rank, which can shuffle results around for anywhere from weeks to months (or permanently), depending on the update and your industry. This is the second core update of 2026 and is expected to take roughly two weeks to fully roll out.

Because both landed at once, nobody can cleanly say what caused any observed changes in traffic right now. If you saw a drop, it could be the algorithm. If you saw a jump, it could be the new search box surfacing different results. If you saw nothing at all, that is also normal.

The honest answer is to let the rollout finish, and judge yourself by leads rather than visits.

my read

If your site’s numbers look strange this week, you can’t say why yet, and neither can anyone who’s trying to sell you a fix. Two things are moving at the same time. The calm choice, and the one Google itself recommends, is to not make big changes mid-shuffle. Let it settle, then look at whether you’re getting leads, not just whether visits went up or down.

In Plain Terms

Core Update

A periodic, broad refinement of how Google ranks pages. It can cause a couple of weeks, months, or even permanent reshuffling, depending on the algorithm or update and your industry. An initial, short shift is normal, expected, and not necessarily a sign that you did anything wrong.

AI Mode

Google’s fuller, chatbot-style search where you have a back-and-forth conversation instead of getting a list of blue links.

Sources: Google’s I/O 2026 announcements and its official rollout dashboard · independent trackers confirming the update started May 21.

03

What’s New

SIGNAL

Actually new, but early. Understand it; don’t chase it.

The one genuinely new idea this month: “agentic” search.

Underneath all the renaming, here’s something actually new. The next step for AI isn’t just answering your question. It’s doing things for you.

At I/O 2026, Google announced what it calls Information Agents: AI helpers you set up once, that then watch the web in the background, 24/7, and ping you when something changes. Tell it you’re apartment hunting and give it your criteria, and it scans listings against them. Tell it you want to know the moment a favourite athlete drops a new sneaker, and it tells you when the drop lands.

Think of it as Google Alerts that read, reason, and eventually act, instead of just matching keywords.

Google also previewed a “Universal Cart” that aggregates products from different stores into a single checkout. The direction is clear: agents that don’t just monitor, but eventually research, compare, and buy on your behalf.

Information Agents are rolling out first to AI Pro and Ultra subscribers this summer. They are early, opt-in, and tiny in volume. They are also the real horizon, and the thing vendors will soon start selling as “urgent.”

The thing to do this month is simply understand it exists. There is nothing to chase yet.

But the shift this implies, that your future customer’s first interaction with your business might be through an agent acting for them rather than through them, is genuinely worth thinking about. It does not, however, change a single thing on your to-do list this week.

my read

This is the one item this month I’d call “new,” not “renamed.” You don’t need to do anything about it this quarter. You just want to understand what it is so that when it comes up, you’re the person who can explain it instead of the person nodding along again.

In Plain Terms

Agentic / AI Agent

AI that doesn’t just answer, it takes actions for you. Like monitoring, researching, or eventually booking and buying on your behalf.

Information Agents

Google’s name for AI helpers that watch the web around the clock and report back when something you care about changes. Early, and currently for paid users.

Sources: Google’s I/O 2026 “Information Agents” announcement and its own guidance pointing to agentic experiences as the next area to watch.

04

The Numbers That Matter

Here’s two stats that are scaring everyone, and the two that should reassure you. The gap between them is the most useful thing you can take away this month.

65 %

of Google searches now end without anyone clicking a website

93 %

end without a click inside Google’s chat-style AI Mode

35 %

more clicks for brands named in the AI summary than those left out

23 %

better conversion from the people who do still click through

Fewer people visiting your site is not the same as fewer customers. The visits you lose are mostly casual browsers who’d have bounced anyway. The goal quietly shifts from “get more traffic” to “be the brand the AI mentions.“

A NOTE ON HONESTY

You may have heard “visitors from AI convert four times better.” It made the rounds for a while, but newer studies don’t back it up, so I’d quietly drop it rather than repeat it. The numbers above make the real point: fewer visits, but the ones you get matter more, and being mentioned beats being buried.

Sources: click and conversion studies from Datos/SparkToro, Semrush, Seer and Ahrefs · plus growth advisor Kevin Indig, who keeps reminding teams to start from the business question, not the latest tactic.

05

What This Means For You

#1

Cross the “AI tricks” off your worry list.

If llms.txt, “chunking,” or “AI rewrites” are on a to-do list or an invoice somewhere, you can drop them. Google has now said in writing that they’re not needed. That’s time and budget back.

TELL YOUR BOSS

We’re not behind on AI search. Google just confirmed the SEO fundamentals we already invest in are what actually work.

#2

Don’t panic at this week’s numbers.

With a Google tune-up and a new search feature landing together, traffic may wobble for a couple of weeks. This is the worst possible week to make sudden changes based on a dip. Wait to see if any changes last.

TELL YOUR BOSS

Expect short-term movement in our numbers. It’s a known Google update. We’re watching leads, not just visits, before drawing any conclusions.

#3

Change the number you celebrate.

A traffic chart that drifts down isn’t the failure it looks like. The better question is whether your brand shows up in the AI answers your customers see, and whether the visits you still get from the search results turn into business.

TELL YOUR BOSS

Raw traffic is the wrong scoreboard now. I’d rather report whether we’re the brand getting mentioned, plus our conversion rate.

#4

Learn one word: “agentic.”

You don’t need to act on it this quarter. You just want to understand AI agents well enough to explain them, so you’re ahead of the conversation instead of catching up to it.

TELL YOUR BOSS

The next shift is “agentic” AI that takes actions, not just answers. Nothing to spend on yet. We’re tracking it so we’re ready.

FREE MONTHLY READ

A calm monthly read on what’s actually moving in SEO, content, and AI search.

Noise vs. Signal is a free monthly read for in-house marketing teams. Twenty minutes a month, sourced and summarized, so you spend less time separating signal from noise. And if you’d ever like a hand turning any of this into a real plan, that’s what we do at Forge and Smith. Just ask.

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About the Author

Shawn Johnston

Shawn Johnston is the Founder & CEO of Forge and Smith, with 26+ years of experience in design, strategy, and digital systems. His work focuses on helping organizations build stronger digital foundations through thoughtful strategy, scalable processes, and human-centered leadership. Shawn is passionate about craft, collaboration, and creating meaningful digital experiences that help organizations grow and evolve.

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